A New Mayor and New Policies in New York City
As I am sure you've heard, New York City has just elected a new mayor – Zohran Mamdani – who ran on a progressive platform promising big changes in the city. At just 34 years old, Mamdani campaigned on making life more affordable for average New Yorkers. His headline proposals include free city buses, a citywide rent freeze, and higher taxes on wealthy residents. Supporters hope these measures will help struggling renters and workers, but the plans have also raised concerns among high-earning individuals and businesses. Some worry that hiking taxes and other left-leaning policies could drive away investment and affluent residents. In fact, even before Mamdani was sworn in, wealthy New Yorkers were eyeing escape routes – and one of their prime destinations is just next door: Connecticut.
Why Connecticut Cares: The NYC-CT Connection
Connecticut’s economy and housing market are closely tied to New York City. Many Connecticut residents commute to jobs in NYC, and historically when New York City becomes less inviting – due to high taxes, cost of living, or safety concerns – some New Yorkers move north to the Connecticut suburbs. We saw this during the pandemic: tens of thousands of New York City dwellers relocated to Connecticut for more space and a better quality of life. In 2022 alone, Connecticut had a net gain of about 81,000 new residents, with 35,000 more people moving in from New York than going the other way. This longstanding pattern explains why Connecticut is paying close attention to Mayor Mamdani’s new agenda. If his policies make some New Yorkers uneasy, Connecticut could see another influx of people (and money) crossing state lines.
What makes the Connecticut suburbs so attractive? A few key factors often drive New Yorkers to consider the Nutmeg State:
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Lower Taxes: New York’s combined city and state income tax rate for top earners is roughly 13.5%–14.8%, versus about 7% in Connecticut. High-net-worth families worried about “rising levies” (taxes) under a Mamdani administration see Connecticut as a friendlier tax environment.
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Public Safety and Quality of Life: Some New Yorkers are concerned about urban issues like crime or overcrowding. In the suburbs, they seek safer communities, good schools, and more breathing room. As one report noted, buyers leaving the city frequently cite safety and urban livability as major factors.
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More Space: Connecticut offers leafy neighborhoods, backyards, and spacious homes – a stark contrast to cramped city apartments. The ability to “stretch out” and even work from a home office has huge appeal, especially in the era of remote work.
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No City Taxes: Unlike New York City, Connecticut towns (and nearby Westchester County, NY) do not impose local city income taxes on residents. Avoiding New York City’s ~4% city income tax is an immediate perk for those who switch their primary residence to the suburbs.
These advantages have long made Connecticut’s Fairfield County a magnet for those seeking an escape from New York’s high costs. Now, with Mayor Mamdani signaling a further swing to the left in NYC’s policies, Connecticut could once again benefit from a small “exodus” of high-earners or businesses looking for stability.
Southern Fairfield County: An Influx of “Big Money”?
Southern Fairfield County – particularly the Gold Coast areas like Greenwich, Stamford, New Canaan, Darien, and Westport – is typically the first stop for affluent New Yorkers. These communities are close to Manhattan (roughly 30–60 minutes by train or car), offering upscale amenities and prestigious neighborhoods. Lately, local real estate brokers are reporting a surge of interest reminiscent of the post-2020 pandemic boom. In fact, even before the election was decided, some NYC residents started house-hunting in Connecticut to secure a residence just in case Mamdani won. Paul Breunich, CEO of a major real estate firm in the region, noted that ever since Mamdani’s primary victory in June “it’s been on the radar” – wealthy clients have quietly been scouting homes in Connecticut so they can establish residency outside New York City if needed.
Early evidence suggests an uptick in demand and prices in these high-end Connecticut markets. According to a New York Post report, realtors in Connecticut (and neighboring Westchester County, NY) have seen a “frenzy reminiscent of the early pandemic exodus,” with properties vanishing in days amid fierce bidding wars and all-cash deals pushing prices beyond expectations. In ultra-wealthy Greenwich, for example, the number of homes listed for sale has plummeted to historic lows – only about 115 listings were available this fall, down from over 800 a few years ago. With such thin inventory, any new demand from city buyers is fueling intense competition for the few multimillion-dollar homes on the market. Local agents describe situations where turnkey estates receive multiple offers within days, sometimes selling for hundreds of thousands above the asking price.
One Greenwich broker even quipped that looking at a long-term sales chart, “you get to this year and it’s a hockey stick” – an abrupt spike in high-end sales coinciding with Mamdani’s rise. In the months following Mamdani’s June primary win, sales of luxury homes in Greenwich (priced over $10 million) doubled compared to the previous year. By late 2025, Greenwich was on track to hit a record number of $10M+ transactions, far surpassing its last peak in 2007. Some headline-grabbing examples included two estate deals in August for over $43 million each – eye-popping prices even by Greenwich standards. Brokers attribute this high-end buying spree in part to the so-called “Mamdani effect”, as wealthy families hedge against potential NYC tax hikes by investing in Connecticut real estate.
It’s important to note that not all of this activity is due to New York’s political shift. Other factors are also boosting the Fairfield County luxury market – a strong stock market (creating big bonuses and gains to spend), concerns about a tech bubble or other investments (making real estate look safer), and even currency exchange rates making U.S. property cheaper for foreign buyers. However, the perception of a more hostile climate for the rich in NYC under Mayor Mamdani is clearly an additional motivation for some buyers. Realtors report that many incoming clients explicitly mention the election as a reason for their move, often voicing anxiety about higher taxes, public safety, and general “livability” under the new administration. As one commentator observed about Mamdani’s wealthy would-be taxpayers: “The guy isn’t even elected yet, and already the sheep he counted on fleecing are fleeing instead.”i
Ripples Further Afield: Could Mid-Fairfield County Benefit Too?
The immediate impact of any New York exodus will be felt in the ultra-desirable enclaves on the state’s western border. But what about towns a bit further into Connecticut, in mid-Fairfield County and beyond? It’s quite possible that a ripple effect will extend to these areas as well. If the Greenwich/Stamford area experiences an influx of “big money” buyers and runs low on supply, spillover demand could reach communities slightly north and east – for example, the towns of Fairfield, Westport, Wilton, Trumbull, or Shelton.
During the COVID relocation wave, new residents from New York didn’t only settle in Greenwich; they spread throughout Connecticut, from coastal suburbs to even rural corners of the state. For instance, some high-earning Manhattanites chose places like Litchfield County (farther from NYC, but offering country charm and luxury second homes). Likewise, in Fairfield County, once the closer-in markets got tight, buyers started exploring more inland towns where their dollars stretched further. A similar dynamic could play out if NYC sees another migration mini-surge.
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Towns like Fairfield and Westport (on the Metro-North train line, but a bit beyond Greenwich) might attract families who want good schools and commuter access without the extreme price tags of the Gold Coast’s priciest ZIP codes. These towns already saw heightened interest in recent years as alternatives to Greenwich or Darien, and they remain relatively more affordable while still offering beachfronts, amenities, and a reasonable commute.
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Interior suburbs such as Trumbull or Shelton could also see an uptick in attention. These communities are further from the city (and lack direct train service), but they offer a lot of house for the money and a quieter suburban lifestyle. A finance or tech professional who can work remotely most days might gladly trade a Brooklyn condo for a large home in Trumbull with a big yard, only commuting to Manhattan occasionally. Shelton, in particular, has grown into a business-friendly hub with corporate offices and new housing development – it could draw companies or remote-working employees seeking lower costs while still being within driving distance of NYC.
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Stamford and Norwalk, on the edge of southern and mid-Fairfield, might serve as middle-ground options. Stamford is already a mini-city with corporate headquarters (and an express train to NYC), which could welcome any firms or financial services considering moving operations out of New York. Norwalk and surrounding communities might appeal to younger buyers and renters who leave the city but aren’t ready to splurge on Greenwich prices.
In short, if enough New Yorkers decide to “vote with their feet,” the wave will not stop at Greenwich – it can diffuse outward across the region. More demand in any part of Fairfield County tends to raise housing activity in neighboring areas. We may see higher home prices and quicker sales in mid-county towns as trickle-down effects of the Gold Coast frenzy. For example, if a family sells a Manhattan co-op and finds Greenwich too expensive or too competitive, they might set their sights on a place like Fairfield or Wilton where inventory is better. Real estate markets are interconnected, so a shock in one area (like a sudden influx of buyers) can tighten supply and lift values in adjacent markets.
A High-Level, Cautiously Optimistic Outlook
From a broad perspective, Connecticut’s real estate market stands to gain a boost from New York’s new political direction – but the impact will likely be measured, not massive. Even Connecticut’s Governor, Ned Lamont, has noted the buzz. He declined to “pick sides” in NYC’s election, but hinted that he’s gotten calls from people nervous about New York’s future business climate. Connecticut officials recognize that what’s bad for New York (in the eyes of some businesses or residents) could be good for Connecticut. After all, an influx of wealthy households brings tax revenue, business investment, and spending to the state. This potential “Mamdani dividend” for Connecticut is generating cautious excitement in local economic circles.
However, it’s important to remain realistic. Not every millionaire in Manhattan will flee due to Mayor Mamdani’s policies, and New York City isn’t likely to empty out overnight. In fact, studies suggest tax differences alone don’t always cause a mass exodus of millionaires. Many factors tie people to the city – careers, culture, family – and those won’t vanish immediately. So we shouldn’t expect a flood of moving vans on I-95 all at once. Connecticut faces its own challenges: limited housing inventory (especially in Fairfield County) and already-high home prices could make it hard for large numbers of newcomers to find suitable homes. Connecticut is also grappling with housing affordability issues for its current residents. An uptick in demand from New Yorkers could exacerbate the supply squeeze and drive prices even higher, potentially pricing out local buyers. Lawmakers in Hartford are aware of this and have been debating ways to increase housing stock – a task that may take on more urgency if the “Mamdani effect” materializes in full force.
From a policy standpoint, Connecticut will need to balance welcoming new wealthy residents with ensuring benefits for existing communities. More rich taxpayers moving in is good for the budget, but not if it worsens inequality or congestion. There’s also the question of sustainability: if New York adjusts its course (for example, if state authorities or courts temper Mayor Mamdani’s tax ambitions), the rush to Connecticut could slow. Real estate trends can change quickly, especially if initial fears about the new mayor’s policies turn out to be overblown or if those policies are moderated.
Conclusion: Watching the Trends
In summary, Mayor Mamdani’s rise in New York is more than just a city politics story – it’s one with regional ripple effects. For Connecticut’s real estate market, the early signals point to heightened interest from across the border: phone calls to local Realtors, weekend home tours for Manhattan families, bidding wars in tony suburbs like Greenwich, and even murmurs of big firms considering new office space in the Stamford area. Southern Fairfield County is poised to be the prime beneficiary of any flight of capital and households from New York. And if the trend is strong enough, it could radiate into mid-Fairfield County towns such as Shelton, Trumbull, Fairfield, and beyond, spurring activity in markets that offer more bang for the buck.
Everyone from real estate agents to town officials will be watching these developments closely in the coming months. The situation is dynamic: it depends on how aggressively New York’s new leadership pushes its agenda and how the affluent segment of NYC responds. For now, Connecticut can take a cautiously optimistic view. The state may gain an infusion of new homebuyers and businesses, reinforcing an upswing that started during the pandemic. Yet it must also prepare for the challenges that come with popularity – ensuring there are enough homes, maintaining infrastructure for any population growth, and keeping Connecticut an attractive (and affordable) place for all residents.
In the end, what we’re seeing is a classic example of how policies in one area can create ripple effects in another. New York City’s sharp political turn leftward under Mayor Mamdani has set the stage for a potential mini-migration. And Connecticut, with its mix of lower taxes, suburban charm, and proximity to the Big Apple, stands ready to catch some of those ripples – turning them into waves of opportunity for the local real estate market. Only time will tell how large those waves grow, but it’s clear that the ties between New York and Connecticut real estate are as strong as ever: when New York sneezes, Connecticut’s housing market just might catch a cold – or, in this case, a windfall.
Sources: Recent reports from CT Insiderctinsider.comctinsider.com, Hearst Connecticut Medianewstimes.comnewstimes.com, the New York Postnewstimes.com, and Newsweeknewsweek.com, among others, have informed this analysis. These outlets have documented the “Mamdani effect” – from wealthy New Yorkers scanning Connecticut real estate listings to record-breaking luxury home sales in Greenwich – illustrating the early impacts of New York City’s mayoral transition on the Connecticut housing market.
